Tiktok Ban: How to adjust your content strategy if Tiktok gets banned in the US

Today’s Tip: Tiktok is a large part of many creator businesses…here’s how to approach a potential ban on January 19th (and the moves I’m making in case it happens).

The US gave Tiktok an ultimatum — either sell the US business to a US owner or get banned from operating in the US.

Bytedance (Tiktok’s parent company) doesn’t seem to be flinching. They refuse to give up the algorithm (translation = they’d prefer to keep the best spyware ever invented)

This means, on Jan 19th, one of three scenarios will happen:

1. Tiktok gets banned in US - this wouldn’t mean it disappears. It’s already installed on 180M phones. But this would mean that no future upgraded versions could be downloaded because it’d be removed from all app stores. At first, US users wouldn’t notice a difference, but the more they issue patches and upgrades for the rest of the world, the US version will get worse and worse

2. Tiktok gets an extension - political hail mary 

3. Tiktok sells the US business to a US buyer (without the algorithm) - rumors are there is a buyer group with $20B ready to buy it. The recommendation algorithm would have to be rebuilt domestically, which means the experience and targeting would be much worse for a while 

For options 1 and 3, this would cause a significant disruption. As Tiktok declines, the experience might drive users elsewhere.

For non-US users, you will have full access to use Tiktok in your home country…however, expect to see views and engagement metrics decline across the board.

Here’s where I think that attention flows if Tiktok is banned…

• The obvious: Most of this attention will go to already established short-form video platforms (Instagram Reels, LinkedIn Video, YouTube Shorts, Snapchat, Facebook Reels). Instagram is positioned as the huge potential winner here

• The non-obvious: Tiktok has a sister app, Lemon8, that has quietly been gaining steam. There’s a chance this becomes the replacement, but I’d assume the US would just quick piggyback ban this as well

• The sleeper: Given the demand for short-form video, there’s a massive opportunity for a new platform to emerge that isn’t made by one of the incumbents. It’s possible one is already in motion.

Here’s how I’m playing it…

1. Increase volume on existing platforms: Short-form video isn’t going anywhere. If anything, Tiktok proved how effective embedded affiliate programs (like Tiktok Shop) could be if executed correctly. I think Instagram will figure this out soon. The absence of Tiktok just means more concentration elsewhere, so increased importance to keep posting there

2. Pounce on new platforms: I would give anything to go back to 2020 and start Tiktok then. The first 12-18 months of a new platform is the biggest arbitrage opportunity in all of media. You can grow at lightspeed on new platforms and then monetize in massive numbers. If a new platform emerges, I’m going all-in. You should be ready to as well.

The big takeaway is this…short-form video is going to be a staple content format for a long time. Don’t take your foot off the gas just because Tiktok is going away.

Also, let this be a reminder that rented platforms (all things besides email) carry extinction risk. Make sure you’re diversified…email newsletters are best.

PS - If you’re curious about other ways social media will change in 2025, I put together this video breaking down the 6 biggest upcoming shifts you should know about